According to @santimentfeed, post–Fed rate cut volatility has 30-day MVRV at BTC +2.4% (neutral), ETH +7.2% (mildly overvalued), XRP -6.1% (mildly undervalued), LINK -0.3% (neutral), and ADA -4.4% (neutral), based on their on-chain dashboard at app.santiment.net/s/DAqlUNSI. According to @santimentfeed, a lower or negative 30-day MVRV implies lower risk for swing entries as average traders are down and a catch-up move is possible, while positive MVRV indicates elevated profit-taking risk in a zero-sum market. According to @santimentfeed, these readings suggest caution on ETH near term and relatively more favorable swing conditions on XRP and ADA, with BTC and LINK near neutral.

According to @santimentfeed, the Federal Reserve executed three rate cuts over the past three months, cumulatively lowering the federal funds target range by 75 bps to 3.50–3.75% via the Sep 16–17, Oct 28–29, and Dec 9–10, 2025 FOMC meetings, which is directly relevant to crypto market liquidity and risk appetite, source: @santimentfeed on X, Dec 11, 2025. @SANTIMENTFEED reports that each cut triggered a short-term buy-the-rumor, sell-the-news dip across crypto, followed by a typical bounce after sentiment stabilizes, suggesting traders watch for a brief rise in FUD or retail sell-off as a potential signal that the post-cut downswing has ended, source: @santimentfeed on X, Dec 11, 2025. The analysis frames the rate cuts as long-term bullish for crypto while emphasizing near-term volatility around FOMC headlines, and points traders to its social trends dashboard to track when rate cuts and FOMC meetings trend versus price shifts to aid timing, source: @santimentfeed on X, Dec 11, 2025.

According to @ambergroup_io, shifting global rate expectations ripple through Asia’s crypto funding markets faster than traditional assets, with funding spreads and borrow costs moving in lockstep with global rate guidance (source: @ambergroup_io). @ambergroup_io states that many desks are re-evaluating treasury strategies and diversifying liquidity across CeFi and DeFi venues to isolate volatility and optimize opportunities as macro cycles accelerate (source: @ambergroup_io). @ambergroup_io notes the Fed has signaled a slower pace after its third rate cut this year, and the firm is adapting its funding and risk management strategies to navigate the current rate environment (source: @ambergroup_io). For traders, @ambergroup_io highlights that policy guidance changes can swiftly reprice crypto funding conditions in Asia, impacting borrowing costs and spread dynamics across venues, warranting close monitoring of rate signals and cross-venue liquidity (source: @ambergroup_io).

According to @ambergroup_io, shifts in global rate expectations ripple through Asia’s crypto funding markets faster than traditional assets, with funding spreads and borrow costs moving in lockstep with rate guidance, source: @ambergroup_io on X, Dec 11, 2025. According to @ambergroup_io, trading desks are re-evaluating treasury strategies by diversifying liquidity across CeFi and DeFi venues to isolate volatility and optimize opportunities as macro cycles accelerate, source: @ambergroup_io on X, Dec 11, 2025. According to @ambergroup_io, the Fed has signaled a slower pace after its third rate cut this year, prompting continuous adjustments to institutional funding and risk management strategies, source: @ambergroup_io on X, Dec 11, 2025.

According to @WatcherGuru, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said policy rates will stay the same or be cut a little or a lot, adding that a rate hike is not anyone's base case. Source: Watcher.Guru post on X dated Dec 10, 2025. A pivot away from hikes reduces expected discount rates and tends to lift risk-asset valuations by easing financial conditions. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Education resources on how monetary policy affects the economy; Federal Reserve Financial Stability Report. For crypto, periods of falling U.S. yields have coincided with stronger performance and higher beta versus equities, with BTC and ETH showing increased correlation to risk-on moves. Source: IMF Global Financial Stability Report 2023; Kaiko Research correlation analyses 2023–2024. Traders can watch the U.S. 2-year Treasury yield and DXY for confirmation, as declines in these indicators have aligned with crypto upside during prior dovish shifts. Source: CME Group education on interest rates and FX; Coin Metrics market data on BTC sensitivity to yields.

According to @StockMKTNewz, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said a rate hike is not anyone's base case and policy is either holding, cutting a little, or cutting a lot. Source: @StockMKTNewz on X, Dec 10, 2025. This guidance reduces perceived hike risk and is typically supportive for risk assets and cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) as easier financial conditions lower discount rates. Source: Federal Reserve Board, Monetary Policy Report (June 2023) on monetary policy transmission to financial conditions. Crypto traders should watch 2-year U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) for confirmation, as BTC has shown periods of inverse co-movement with yields and the dollar during easing shifts. Source: Bank for International Settlements research on crypto market behavior (2023) and Federal Reserve Economic Data for UST2Y and DXY.

According to Charlie Bilello, the Federal Reserve’s cumulative 150 bps in rate cuts are an unnecessary easing that will fuel inflation, and he argues cuts do not create jobs given what he calls the weakest labor market since 2020 (source: Charlie Bilello on X, Dec 9, 2025). For trading, such a critique can prompt positioning for higher inflation expectations and rates volatility around FOMC signals, with USD moves historically linked to BTC via a negative BTC-DXY correlation (sources: CME Group FedWatch for rate-pricing; Binance Research, 2023, on BTC-DXY correlation). BTC and ETH have shown sensitivity to US real yields in past cycles, with lower real yields aligning with stronger crypto performance (source: Glassnode Insights, 2023). Crypto traders can monitor DXY, Treasury real yields, and breakeven inflation as catalysts for short-term direction following policy-easing headlines (sources: Federal Reserve H.15 for yields; FRED TIPS breakevens).

According to @BullTheoryio, U.S. M2 money supply has reached a record $22.3 trillion and is expanding at the fastest pace since mid-2022, signaling a liquidity turn that historically supports risk assets and crypto [source: @BullTheoryio]. According to @BullTheoryio, periods of accelerating M2 have coincided with rallies in BTC and altcoins, while slowdowns have aligned with crypto drawdowns [source: @BullTheoryio]. According to @BullTheoryio, the driver is an outlook for continued Federal Reserve rate cuts that lower borrowing costs and redirect capital into higher-beta assets like BTC and alts [source: @BullTheoryio]. According to @BullTheoryio, citing UBS expectations, the Federal Reserve could begin purchasing about $40 billion per month in T-bills in early 2026, which would function as early-stage quantitative easing and further boost liquidity if implemented [source: @BullTheoryio citing UBS]. According to @BullTheoryio, a mix of rising M2, lower rates, and balance sheet-style operations would likely weaken the U.S. dollar over the next few quarters, a backdrop the author notes has historically accompanied Bitcoin breakouts, altcoin expansions, and broader risk rallies [source: @BullTheoryio]. According to @BullTheoryio, prior liquidity expansions in 2016-2017 and 2020-2021 aligned with crypto bull runs, and the current acceleration is described as one of the strongest macro setups for BTC and altcoins since the 2020-2021 cycle [source: @BullTheoryio].

According to @cas_abbe, the December Fed rate path is nearly locked after PCE met expectations and Core PCE came in lower than expected, signaling cooler inflation pressures (source: @cas_abbe on X, Dec 5, 2025). The author states US companies cut 1.17 million jobs in 2025, indicating a very weak labor market and reinforcing recession risk as a spike in unemployment is a classic warning signal (source: @cas_abbe on X, Dec 5, 2025). He adds that aggressive Fed rate cuts have historically coincided with weak market performance and that simultaneous declines in inflation and growth reflect a deflationary backdrop (source: @cas_abbe on X, Dec 5, 2025). He argues rate cuts alone may be insufficient and that the Fed would need to inject liquidity to keep the economy moving; otherwise, crypto could face a highly volatile 2026 with BTC and ETH especially sensitive to liquidity and unemployment trends (source: @cas_abbe on X, Dec 5, 2025).

According to @KobeissiLetter, the Fed must cut rates even with inflation at 3% to support strained consumers, and he expects additional cuts as large-cap tech rallies (source: @KobeissiLetter). For crypto trading, easier policy and lower real yields have historically coincided with stronger BTC and ETH performance due to tighter equity–crypto correlations since 2020 (source: International Monetary Fund, 2022 Global Financial Stability Note on crypto–equity correlation). Traders can track cut odds via fed funds futures, policy guidance via FOMC statements, and macro drivers via the U.S. 2-year Treasury yield and the U.S. Dollar Index to gauge risk-on momentum (sources: CME Group; Federal Reserve; U.S. Department of the Treasury; ICE). Catalyst watch: CPI releases and FOMC meetings are the key events that would validate or refute the rate-cut path and its impact on crypto liquidity and beta (sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Federal Reserve).

According to @charliebilello, assets in U.S. money market funds have surpassed $8 trillion for the first time (source: Charlie Bilello on X, Dec 2, 2025). He reports that inflows have continued despite a cumulative 150 basis points of Federal Reserve rate cuts since September 2024 (source: Charlie Bilello on X, Dec 2, 2025). He also states that another 25 basis point rate cut is expected next week, a key timing marker for traders monitoring liquidity conditions across risk assets and crypto markets (source: Charlie Bilello on X, Dec 2, 2025).

According to @BullTheoryio, U.S. money-market fund assets have reached a record $8 trillion, indicating a large pool of parked cash earning short-term yield while investors wait for the next move (source: @BullTheoryio). The source states the Federal Reserve has begun cutting rates, which will reduce money-market yields and push investors to reposition into higher-return assets as yields become less attractive (source: @BullTheoryio). With crypto access now available across major platforms, the source expects part of this liquidity to rotate into Bitcoin (BTC) and altcoins, creating potentially meaningful inflows that could move both crypto and stocks (source: @BullTheoryio). Based on the cited $8 trillion figure, a 1% reallocation would equate to roughly $80 billion in potential flows, underscoring the market impact of even small percentage shifts (source: @BullTheoryio).

According to @simplykashif citing a new Grayscale report, Bitcoin (BTC) has fallen roughly 30% since October, which Grayscale notes is consistent with about 50 similar drawdowns since 2010 and an average pullback near 30% (source: Grayscale). Grayscale adds that there have been nine dips since 2022 within an ongoing bull cycle, and the firm does not view the current move as the start of a deep bear phase (source: Grayscale). The report states that potential catalysts such as possible Federal Reserve rate cuts and improved U.S. crypto legislation could support market recovery and liquidity, and the firm expects new all-time highs next year (source: Grayscale). The historical takeaway highlighted by Grayscale is that such pullbacks are common in bull markets and have not typically derailed longer-term uptrends for patient holders (source: Grayscale).

According to @NFT5lut, Bitcoin (BTC) has come under strong selling pressure, with weakness spilling over to altcoins including MONAD, pressuring overall crypto market breadth, source: @NFT5lut. The author adds that renewed investor and institutional flows will hinge on how favorable upcoming US Federal Reserve interest rate cuts are perceived, positioning monetary policy as the key near-term catalyst for crypto, source: @NFT5lut. Lower policy rates typically ease financial conditions and reduce discount rates, dynamics that have historically supported risk assets including crypto, source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Traders should watch the FOMC statement and the Summary of Economic Projections (dot plot) for rate-path signals that could shift BTC and altcoin momentum, source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

According to @KobeissiLetter, the current macro mix includes Trump stating he will keep stocks at record highs, Magnificent 7 capital expenditures at $600B per year, the Fed cutting rates with inflation above 3%, global AI infrastructure spend at $1T per year, the Fed ending Quantitative Tightening in 2 days, and U.S. deficit spending above 6% (source: @KobeissiLetter). According to @KobeissiLetter, traders are focusing on the liquidity and fiscal backdrop highlighted by these points, which are typically relevant for risk assets including BTC and ETH due to sensitivity to rates, QE/QT shifts, and capex-driven growth cycles (source: @KobeissiLetter). According to @KobeissiLetter, monitoring the Fed’s QT end timeline, the path of rate cuts with 3%+ inflation, and mega-cap AI capex updates is central to positioning in crypto and equities (source: @KobeissiLetter).

According to @KobeissiLetter, silver has surged to a new record high of $55 per ounce, up about 90% year-to-date in 2025, indicating a strong breakout in precious metals markets; source: @KobeissiLetter on X, Nov 28, 2025. The author adds that deficit spending is soaring while the Federal Reserve is cutting rates with inflation running near 3%, underscoring a policy-easing and inflationary backdrop; source: @KobeissiLetter on X, Nov 28, 2025. The post frames this environment as a call to own assets, signaling a bullish macro stance toward hard assets for traders; source: @KobeissiLetter on X, Nov 28, 2025.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, US private payrolls fell by an average of 13,500 per week over the four weeks ending November 8, worsening from a 2,500 decline per week in the prior period (source: The Kobeissi Letter, Nov 25, 2025). According to The Kobeissi Letter, this deterioration signals a weak labor market and supports the view that the Federal Reserve must continue cutting interest rates, a key macro input for near-term trading decisions (source: The Kobeissi Letter, Nov 25, 2025).

According to @GracyBitget, her HKUST Crypto Finance course used real-market case studies—the 3AC collapse, StepN’s economic-model death spiral, and the 10/11 record liquidation day—to train trader-focused risk management and pitfall avoidance, source: @GracyBitget. In an October classroom example, she advised against buying Circle stock due to revenue concentration on Coinbase and Binance and earnings sensitivity to potential Fed rate cuts, suggesting a revisit near $50–$60; she noted the price was $129 then and is $71 now, source: @GracyBitget. Key trading takeaway emphasized is to avoid narrative-only decisions by quantifying counterparty concentration and rate-cycle risk for stablecoin issuers and preparing for liquidation cascades during volatility spikes like 10/11, source: @GracyBitget.

According to Charlie Bilello, a 5% S&P 500 pullback set the plunge protection team in motion, underscoring a market addicted to easy money (Source: Charlie Bilello, X, Nov 21, 2025). He adds that with inflation averaging roughly 4% per year over the last five years, the Federal Reserve should be hiking rates instead of cutting and has lost credibility, framing policy as too accommodative for current price trends (Source: Charlie Bilello, X, Nov 21, 2025). For trading, Bilello’s stance signals that shallow equity drawdowns may coincide with easier policy expectations, a setup that traders often watch for liquidity-sensitive moves in BTC and ETH alongside real-yield and rate-cut headlines (Source: analysis based on Charlie Bilello, X, Nov 21, 2025).

According to @godbole17, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is up about 25 bps since the Federal Reserve began cutting rates in September last year, remaining firm despite market hopes for deeper easing. Source: https://twitter.com/godbole17/status/1991788508193939827 Elevated long-end yields tighten financial conditions by raising borrowing costs, a setup that typically pressures risk assets, including crypto. Source: https://www.chicagofed.org/research/financial-conditions-index Crypto assets have shown stronger comovement with equities and global financial conditions since 2020, increasing sensitivity to rate and liquidity dynamics that stem from higher Treasury yields. Source: https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/GFSR/Issues/2022/10/11/global-financial-stability-report-october-2022 Traders should monitor the 10-year yield trend as a key macro driver for BTC and ETH performance during periods of sticky rates and constrained liquidity. Source: https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/GFSR/Issues/2022/10/11/global-financial-stability-report-october-2022